| 11.86 |
 -0.44 |
|
-3.58% |
7,598,772 |
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Last Trade as of 11:48 AM ET 11/19/08 |
Trade |
| Last |
Change |
/ |
% Change |
Volume |
S&P Ranking |
Q4 2006
EBAY reported 4th quarter 2006 earnings of .31 per share on 1/24/07.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.30 |
| Low: |
$0.27 |
| Consensus: |
$0.28 |
EBAY 
Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q1 2007
EBAY reported 1st quarter 2007 earnings of .33 per share on 4/18/07.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.31 |
| Low: |
$0.29 |
| Consensus: |
$0.30 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q2 2007
EBAY reported 2nd quarter 2007 earnings of .34 per share on 7/18/07.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.34 |
| Low: |
$0.30 |
| Consensus: |
$0.32 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q3 2007
EBAY reported 3rd quarter 2007 earnings of .41 per share on 10/17/07.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.34 |
| Low: |
$0.32 |
| Consensus: |
$0.33 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q4 2007
EBAY reported 4th quarter 2007 earnings of .45 per share on 1/23/08.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.42 |
| Low: |
$0.40 |
| Consensus: |
$0.41 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q1 2008
EBAY reported 1st quarter 2008 earnings of .42 per share on 4/16/08.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.42 |
| Low: |
$0.37 |
| Consensus: |
$0.39 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q2 2008
EBAY reported 2nd quarter 2008 earnings of .43 per share on 7/16/08.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.43 |
| Low: |
$0.40 |
| Consensus: |
$0.41 |
Q3 2008
EBAY reported 3rd quarter 2008 earnings of .46 per share on 10/15/08.
| Estimates |
| High: |
$0.42 |
| Low: |
$0.40 |
| Consensus: |
$0.41 |
EBAY Beat consensus for this quarter.
Q4 2008
The consensus of the 26 analysts covering EBAY for 4th quarter 2008 is a per share value of $.40.
| Estimates |
| Mean: |
$0.40 |
| High: |
$0.42 |
| Low: |
$0.37 |
Q1 2009
The consensus of the 10 analysts covering EBAY for 1st quarter 2009 is a per share value of $.42.
| Estimates |
| Mean: |
$0.42 |
| High: |
$0.45 |
| Low: |
$0.35 |
Roll over quarters for more information
On 10/15/2008, EBAY reported 3rd quarter 2008 earnings of $0.46 per share. This result beat the +$0.41 consensus of the 25 analysts covering the company and beat last year's 3rd quarter results by 12.2%. The next earnings announcement is expected on 01/19/2009.
| Market Comparison |
P/E
(TTM) |
P/E (Forward
12 Months) |
PEG |
1 Year EPS
Growth Rate |
5 Year EPS
Growth Rate |
| EBAY
Ebay Inc |
8.4x |
9.9x |
0.4x |
-67.95% |
+3.47% |
| Retail (Specialty)
Industry |
14.6x |
15.8x |
1.1x |
+22.51% |
+23.65% |
| Services
Sector |
19.0x |
13.2x |
3.2x |
+11.45% |
+14.31% |
| S&P 500 |
12.9x |
11.9x |
1.5x |
+13.95% |
+22.37% |
EBAY's PE ratio is below the Retail (Specialty) industry average and signals that investors are not willing to pay a premium for this stock. However, during the past year, earnings growth has lagged its historical five year growth rate.
Updated 10/10/2008 As the Market continues to tumble and with all the uncertainty out there my wife came up with a very good Idea!
Why doesn't eBay offer their services to the Government to liquidate all this potential foreclosed property it may end up with at auction after the bail out bill takes effect!
Maybe eBay could become the intermediary to any and all illiquid assets they might end up with in the near future!
McCain already believes in eBay and Meg Whitman as mentioned in his latest debate! I am sure there are synergies between the eBay and the uncertainty surrounding what these assets are worth! I think the publics skepticism towards the pricing of any assets the Government obtains to add liquidity to the market could be remedied if auctions were as public as to be put on eBay!
Updated 10/7/2008
eBay stock hit a new low today very frustrating as I so believed in this Company and still do!
As an investor I have to tell you that this is your last chance to take advantage of a misperception in eBays’ stock by many investors!
Many investors still think eBay is a High Growth High Price earnings ratio stock, but this is simply not true! Barrons lists eBays’ Price Earnings Ratio P/E at 49 incredible to me that such an astute publication could throw investors off like that!
Below is a Table taken directly from Scottrade listing a P/E of 51 but even more laughable is the comment at the bottom about investors have high hopes for this company's future business prospects and this is how Scottrade explains away the High P/E Ratio. But eBay is Trading at a P/E Ratio of 10!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
Market Comparison |
P/E
(TTM) |
P/E (Forward
12 Months) |
PEG |
1 Year EPS
Growth Rate |
5 Year EPS
Growth Rate |
|
EBAY
Ebay Inc |
51.6x |
13.2x |
2.6x |
-67.95% |
+3.47% |
|
Retail (Specialty)
Industry |
27.8x |
20.0x |
2.0x |
+21.28% |
+25.50% |
|
Services
Sector |
21.8x |
15.3x |
2.7x |
+12.70% |
+15.21% |
|
S&P 500 |
15.8x |
14.9x |
2.3x |
+13.73% |
+22.02% |
EBAY's PE ratio is among the highest of any stock in the Retail (Specialty) industry and signals that investors have high hopes for this company's future business prospects. However, during the past year, earnings growth has lagged its historical five year growth rate.
Last Year Meg Whitman decided to write down its SKYPE investment creating a 1 time NON-RECURRING Loss which was taken in the 3rd quarter and after EBAY reports earnings October 15th every publication and even Scottrade will have to list the P/E at 10
Which means for every Dollar an investor pays for eBays’ stock the company is earning $1 a 10% earning yield unheard of in technology stocks let alone Growth companies as well as the Leader in ONLINE Sales while ONLINE sales are still growing and still only a small percentage of all retail sales!
Now let’s look at what a P/E of 10 and or an Earning Yield of 10% compares to what Warren Buffet just invested in!
Buffet accepted 10% yields on investments in GE and Goldman Sachs, 2 business’ that have many more question Marks than whether eBay will sell more Online 10 years from now than it is today!
I mean I know Buffet doesn’t invest in Technology but eBay is anything but a Tech stock it is becoming a grind it out cash cow that is destined to become more dominate both domestically and worldwide in the future!
And if anyone in their right mind (while all about them are losing theirs) had any sense they would buy out eBay. I mean MSFT bidding for Yahoo and Not eBay I don’t get it!
I remember when Ted Turner started CNN in the Mid 80’s and TBS stock tumbled because of the perceived debt he would have to take on to make it work but it did and he got rich!
I analogize this to Bezos at Amazon, if he bid for eBay now his stock would get crushed but in the Long run he would look like a genius. Maybe antitrust issues but since online sales make up such a small amount of the total it would get thru.
I mean if EXXON Mobile can and Sirius XM can than These 2 should hook up!
I think eBay as a stand alone does much better in the long run as an independent, but since My Margin calls are growing each and every day I could use little help, LIKE Yesterday!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Updated 7/15/2008
My wife and I went to eBay Live 2008 in Chicago, Chris Isaak was playing in the background at the Gala Saturday night!
I went to the Annual Stockholders meeting! I was late because I thought it would be in the Hyatt, the $279 a night hotel, we were staying at adjacent to Convention center where eBaylive was being held, but instead it was in the Hyatt downtown and I was 20 minutes late! As I approached the doors to get in the meeting with a prepared comment to boost the ever-sagging eBay stock price the lady at the door said No admittance you are late!
I sighed and said watch me! Embarrassed I walked in late and caught the end of John Donahoe very informative presentation.
Nervous I was going to get kicked out I forgot a lot of what I was going to say, so I will try again here!
I asked the 2nd question and took the microphone after the 1st question criticized
eBay's stocks performance!
I said, I am rated 63000+ on eBay and "NOW" 3 On Amazon!
I had just started selling on Amazon (stock symbol AMZN) and I was amazed how quickly I could list something!
I.E. I was listing the other day and about 1 minute and a half later I had it listed on Amazon.
The 1st 8 items I listed on AMZN took about 12 minutes then an Item wasn't listed on Amazon, so I had to list it on eBay took me 12 minutes and that was using a stock photo!
As a seller, time value of money, opportunity costs, goes into every decision to list or not.
If it takes 15 minutes to list a $10 item that cost you $5 the best you can expect to make before eBay's 20% average cost per transaction is $20 an hour, but on Amazon that is greatly enhanced! even at 2 minutes you can average $150 an hour listing on AMZN!
So I went on and said listing something to sell on eBay should be as easy as selling a share of stock! There should be a data base of every product and instead of kicking people of eBay for stealing pictures I said I felt like starting a website STEAL MY PICTURE.COM.
What I was trying to say was with all the items sold over the years eBay would really benefit to keep the descriptions and pictures or even just generic stock photo's so that when you click to sell it, it is there and you might add a little to the description but all and all it has to be much easier!
I mean you shouldn't have to pay the 40-year-old virgins Girlfriend, 35% of the selling price because eBay makes it impossible to list! That 35% should be going to eBay and its stockholders!
I told Meg who was sitting in the front row, if eBay wants to stay independent they have got to act quickly and close this discrepancy! In the stock market we call it an Arbitrage opportunity and that is exactly what I brought up next!
I said Amazon could take over eBay and it wouldn't even be dilutive to AMZN shareholders.
What I was trying to say is it incredulous to me that AMZN can be on a pace to earn $1.51 per share and EBAY a $1.75 a share and eBay trade at less that 1/3rd of AMZN!
I can't believe I backed the wrong horse and have nearly all my money in eBay !
At this point they asked me to give back the Microphone as my rant was viewed by many as blasphemy, Sacrilege.
What they didn't know is I had Margin calls in my account a day before I went, as Billionaire Meg & John Donahoe looked at me as a mercenary.
John Donahoe had talked earlier about eBay's Giving works and Charitable donations and philanthropic activities eBay has been pursuing!
Well as a struggling seller I say Charity starts at Home take care of the .8% of us that know how to sell in complicated eBay Marketplace!
I mean talk about arbitrage opportunities I told John Donahoe analysts will upgrade your stock if you get more listings, only .8% of people are sellers you would think they would want to get that number up!
But I got a suspicious feeling they think there is too much product on eBay and it is hurting prices sellers are getting. This would be a fatal miscalculation on eBay's part.
Pierre Omidyar was quoted as starting eBay to be the perfect market place and when I quit selling stocks to start selling on this perfect market place I did so with the belief eBay would be just that someday!
I was shorting internet stocks in the late 1990's but never eBay and I also never trusted or believed in Amazon thinking AMZN had to much debt and seemed to narrow!
Today I am dismayed that I backed the wrong horse and embarrassed I told so many people to buy eBay stock over the years.
I do want to say that eBay broke a 3 year downtrend line about a year ago and although looks to be in another has continued to have higher lows in a very tough market!
I bought more eBay at $26.30, $27.19 and yesterday at $26.31 and have over 3700 shares now. I have been buying because with no 10 cent listing days this quarter, I have to think eBay felt it was on target to make the quarter without panicking and lowering prices!
I also felt with a lot of people are struggling, and instead of an eBay stock which is sometime lumped in with retailers, eBay might benefit from people being forced to sell there goods even at bargain prices!
Like the old saying in the stock market stockbrokers make a commission when you buy and sell even if they are at lower prices!
The other reason is I have seen stocks great stocks like Coke symbol (KO) just go sideways for years then break out when they get the last bull out of the stock!
eBay reminds me of KO some 15-20 years ago before it went on an unprecedented run! And finally the fact it is so undervalued relative to Amazon that I know it will catch up at some point!
I mean someday Chinamen in their rice paddies will open up their laptop and connect to a wifi and start selling rice to Wal-Mart customers even as Wal-Mart here restricts purchases!
I want to be in eBay stock for that moment and beyond!
eBay has closed so many loopholes over the years that I can't help but think they will close the one I have been complaining about as well!
John Donahoe take care of us sellers a bit and we will take care of the buyers
I can't help but remember the revelation I had about why the biggest most profitable retailers could sell at the lowest price and offer the best buyer experiences but it is a fact without my explaining!
Wal-Mart, Home Depot comes to mind, but if eBay doesn't have the best sellers interest in mind Trust me it won't make for a good sellers experience!
Updated 1/04/2007
Meg Whitman’s first eBay purchase was a Beanie Baby!
She mentioned this quite embarrassingly at the 1st eBay Live event I went too!
At that convention it was also mentioned that eBay used to be the market place that beanies and not much else was sold in the very beginning! I.E. Beanies really gave eBay its start!
From these Humble beginnings I can’t help but believe Meg has much resentment towards the beanie salesman that gave eBay its initial presence on the Net!
Beanies mostly trade at $2-5 now and are most hurt by the price increases that eBay keeps making periodically and again announced just yesterday.
I really believe and I have been at this for 9 years and own 3500 shares of eBay stock, that eBay is running the beanie salesmen off eBay!
Most sellers now have websites and many beanie sales have made there way Off eBay!
But in a Macro sense eBay should have little or No fee say 10cents for 99cent or less items; this would increase volume and also for commodities should have a sell item page with such ease of entry as if one were selling and share of stock on a stock exchange!
Generic Pictures and description should already be included much like DVD’s are sold if you have UPC info. when one goes to sell such an item!
So I ask eBay to lower the 99cent sale items to 10cents, change 1-$5 items to 25cents and trust me like reagonomics and the trickle down theory as well as how lowering taxes can actually increase overall revenues if eBay does these 2 things maybe #1 the beanie market will come back a little, and #2 eBay will increase revenues and stop the flight of sellers to other venues at the same time increase Paypal revenues since most sales end up using Paypal! If Meg only realized how much a $2 item with a fair Shipping and Handling fee really ends up in eBays revenues thru Paypal payments they would really implement these ideas!
And for those eBay bears out there I have been selling on eBay since 1998 and in the beginning it was all M.O. and or checks and now I might get 5-10 M.O. and or checks a week and over 140 Paypals a week!
Please Meg swallow a little pride and don’t put our beanie salesmen out of business just because you are embarrassed that we started out so humbly!
I have approximately 4000 beanies I would put up on eBay for 99cents if listing fees were lower!
I don’t know if sell side analysts knows I pay between Paypal and eBay an average of 20% of eBay sales each month to eBay! So for example in October 2006 we did $7,837.49 in eBay sales but with Shipping and Handling we took in $12001 in Paypal of which I paid 1,200.71 in eBay fees $359.08 in paypal fees OR A TOTAL OF $1,559.79!
It is my contention eBay would have made at least $1653 if they lowered the 20cent-listing fee to 10cents and even more if they lowered the 35cents-listing fee for $2-5 items to 25cents!
I know I would put more listings up but will try to find a break even for eBay to make the example work. I sold approximately 50% of listings to generate the $7,837.49 in eBay sales so if I listed 50% more at a 10cent listing fee the eBay fees would go from about $1200 to $900 if I did only same amount in 50% in sales per listing. (This is actually a conservative figure since it is my contention many more people would take a chance on listing a 99cent item if listing fees were 10cents.) A 50% increase in listings with a 50% decline in listing fees actually creates the decline from $1200 to $900. I.E. 10 listings at 20cents equal $2 in eBay fees but I expect to list 15 items at 10cents or a $1.50 in eBay listing fees!
But sales would increase in my opinion at least to say $11,755 generating $215 extra in eBay fees so instead of only $900 it would be more like $1115 in eBay fees still down from $1200 but it is my contention that the increase in Paypal fees will more than offset this small decline and is why I am so bullish on Paypal prospects as I mentioned above!
See if low priced items sell the S/H fees will boost my paypal overall sales to at least $18000 and total Paypal fees to $538 from $359 a $179 increase which brings eBay total revenues to $538 Paypal + 1115 eBay = $1653 which is more than the $1,559.79 I actually paid eBay overall in October 2006.
This example proves that a 50% decrease in 99cent or less items would increase overall eBay Revenues but it is My contention that a 25cent listing fee which is even a smaller decrease percentage wise to the current 35cents and proposed 40cent listing fee beginning Jan 30th, would be even more profitable to eBay overall REVENUES!
Updated 12/05/2006
I have been shorting the Homebuilders again!
NVR at $650 on 12/5/2006 is about 3 times Book; .7 times sales and over 10 times expected earnings.
In 1991 when I sold my $300,000 beachfront condo in foreclosure for $193,000 and my Mainline home the real-estate market was in its last bear Market!
I took out my old Value Lines and in 1991 I noticed Homebuilders Traded about 1 times Book, .1 times sales and about 6 times earnings. So with NVR over 3 times it’s Book, some .7 times it’s Price to Sales ratio, and about twice its expected P/E Ratio, I feel NVR is anywhere between 2 and 4 times the price I see it in the next 3-5 years!
I made money-shorting HOV about a Year ago
And now am quite sure we are seeing a Bear Market Rally!
My Brother has saved over Million selling Mortgages
In his Company Affordable Mortgage in Delaware 302-454-7734 if you want the best rate on a Mortgage tell him you read this here!
But seriously Charlie always gives the best price on his Mortgages since he owns the company and Like aj$ keeps expenses low and passes it on to the customer!
Charlie is also Short the Homebuilders he tells me the Land these builders are sitting on and the Mortgages they have to give to keep the Last sale from being lower are going to hurt future results more than expected! He says the Book Values are actually less than stated for this reason, and talks to many in the business who say it will get much worse before it gets better! He is investing it what he knows!
I shorted NVR because it reminds me of Gold in the early 1980’s.
I remember when it hit $800 an Oz. Then came down then bounced to $565 or so and I was thinking I guess Gold is going to go back to $800 and maybe a buy here, sure enough as a Young stockbroker I learned what a Bear Market Rally was, and Gold plummeted.
Nothing goes straight up or Down but trust me Not CNBC’s James Cramer this is a Bear Market Rally and James is getting you to buy from panicking holders that need a Place to dump before the stocks really trade much lower before reaching fair value!
Anyone that has followed my writings knows I was Long Delta Bonds and tripled my money as well as Short KO (Coke), Gillette and WorldCom in the late 1990's and they are all lower today then they were back then, so don't think this might not be Multi year highs in the Homebuilders as well!
I hate to pick on such an easy target as James Cramer but I am still so upset that he got some friends of mine to sell out their eBay stock with comments that verged on fraud!
I mean when he said that Yahoo had a Lower P/E Ratio then eBay when he knew full well that the Forward P/E was going to be Much higher I was livid!
He was a huge Bear on eBay at the $23-25 level as it Bottomed and even gave up on Yahoo at its Bottom! Now he turns Bullish on eBay at $33!
I agree with him about eBay being a buy at $33.
But investors have got to be wary of a guru who pushes a different stock nearly everyday as there are only so many stocks and if everyone gets in because they are sure he is right there won't be anyone to buy in the future! The Old "Sell to whom" comes to mind, and is making me a little worried that the Market maybe becoming overvalued. Not to mention with about a 70% bullish consensus right now the Market has me short term worried!
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